About romforvalg.no

What It Tries To Answer

Given your assets, debts, expected return, inflation, savings, and spending target (in today’s NOK), when can you retire without breaking the selected strategy constraints?

Core Modeling Ideas

• Monthly simulation timeline with inflation indexing and compounding.
• Instruments activate at chosen ages (stocks, cash, house, loans).
• Scheduled savings and other events can change behavior over time.
• Each savings schedule entry can choose inflation indexing mode: yearly (default), monthly, or none.
• Withdrawals are modeled from a spending target defined in today’s money.
• For depletion strategy, the simulation horizon can be either a fixed end age or a fixed number of withdrawal years after early retirement.
• Supports three simulation modes: deterministic, Monte Carlo, and historical Monte Carlo.
• Visualization shows both nominal and inflation-adjusted paths, with optional Monte Carlo overlays.
• The results panel shows earliest feasible age, assumptions, and a readable summary of key milestones.
• In Monte Carlo modes, a probability-by-age curve is also shown so you can read approximate 50%, 80%, and 95% ages.
• Monthly history provides a full table of savings, withdrawals, taxes, housing, loans, and total wealth over time.
• You can export the current simulation as an Excel workbook for deeper analysis.
• Sharing uses a result link and includes an explicit warning that shared links contain settings and entered values. Links can be opened with both c= (compact) and cfg= (JSON).
• The privacy page explains local browser storage and how to disable or reset saved settings.

Tax Logic (Simplified)

• ASK model and ordinary shares model are both supported.
• Shielding (skjermingsfradrag) is accrued and then used to reduce taxable gains.
• Optional annual wealth tax model is supported, with editable tier thresholds/rates and optional inflation-indexing of thresholds.
• Wealth tax supports valuation factors for stocks/cash/housing and reduced debt deductibility when discounted assets are present.
• A tax preset toggle is available for a fixed Norway Feb 2026 setup versus custom tax parameters.
• Tax settings include stock-gain and cash-gain tax assumptions in the same section as wealth tax assumptions.
• Tax treatment is simplified for planning; it is not legal advice.

Strategies

• Depletion strategy: finds earliest age where you can fund spending until a chosen end age or for a chosen number of withdrawal years while respecting stock-floor constraints.
• Real liquid growth strategy: checks whether inflation-adjusted liquid wealth (cash + stocks) has a non-negative long-run trend after retirement. In Monte Carlo modes this is evaluated with a simple yearly trend regression (so temporary dips can still pass if the overall direction is rising).
• Real liquid floor strategy: requires inflation-adjusted liquid wealth at the end of the evaluation horizon to be equal to or higher than at retirement start. In Monte Carlo modes, random paths can make this criterion fail often, so a feasible minimum retirement age is not always found within the searched age range.

Important Limitations

• Historical mode uses proxy series, not a full total-return index with all fees/taxes/currency effects.
• Uses fixed expected inflation/return parameters instead of changing market regimes.
• Intended for scenario analysis and intuition, not exact forecasting.
• Real liquid growth/floor in Monte Carlo can be slow at high run counts, because each inner simulation also computes yearly checkpoints and pass/fail trend/floor checks.
• For growth/floor strategies in Monte Carlo, "no feasible age found" can be a valid outcome for the chosen assumptions and success-rate threshold.

Default Policy (Credibility-First)

The goal is to reduce "snake oil" risk: defaults should be transparent, realistic enough for planning, and explicit about uncertainty.

1. Standard assumptions: regular Monte Carlo is the default mode (not historical Monte Carlo). Defaults are 7.0% annual stock return, 15.0% annual stock volatility, 3.0% annual inflation, 1.5% annual shielding rate, and an 80% success threshold.
2. Wording: results are framed as estimates under selected assumptions, not guarantees.
3. Always-visible assumptions: selected strategy, data/model choices, and observed Monte Carlo success rate should be visible with results.
4. Language rule: avoid wording such as "certain", "guaranteed", and "exact answer". Prefer "estimated", "scenario", and "may be possible".
5. Minimum transparency: the Assumptions box should be shown with results and include strategy, stock setup, inflation/shielding/cash model, and housing/loan strategy.

Suggested in-product risk text: "This is a scenario model, not a guarantee. Results depend on assumptions about return, tax, and inflation."

Historical Monte Carlo Sources

• MSCI world index historical (~14 years, proxy): URTH.US monthly closes (Stooq), used as a practical MSCI World proxy.
• Oslo Bors all-share historical (~40+ years, proxy): ^OSEAX monthly closes (Stooq), used as a practical Oslo market proxy.
• Dow Jones historical (~130+ years, proxy): ^DJI monthly closes (Stooq), used as a long-run large-cap equity proxy near the long-term 7% assumption range.
• S&P 500 historical (~200+ years, proxy): ^SPX monthly closes (Stooq), used as a long-run equity proxy.
• The 15% default stock volatility in regular Monte Carlo is set as a rounded, data-based baseline from the same long-run S&P 500 proxy series (annualized standard deviation of monthly returns).
• House prices (Oslo/Bergen/Trondheim): SSB table 07221 quarterly house price index (all dwellings), transformed to synthetic monthly returns by repeating (1+q)^(1/3)-1 inside each quarter.
• For each simulation run, monthly stock returns are generated by random sampling from the chosen historical monthly return set (bootstrap with replacement), not by taking one contiguous time window.
• In MSCI correlation mode, historical house models are sampled from the same historical month as stock/cash/inflation whenever month overlap exists.
• In the simulation settings, historical series options include their average annualized level (stocks, cash, inflation, and shielding) so the selected assumptions are easier to compare.